LatAm QSR Rotating Preference to Arcos Dorados from Alsea as Mexico SSS Decelerates and Brazil Inflects

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LatAm QSR Rotating Preference to Arcos Dorados from Alsea as Mexico SSS Decelerates and Brazil Inflects

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

16 July 2026

LatAm QSR

Rotating Preference to Arcos Dorados from Alsea as

Mexico SSS Decelerates and Brazil Inflects

We are shifting preference from Alsea to Arcos Dorados, downgrading Alsea to LatAm Consumer / Food & Beverage

ACNeutral (from Overweight) while upgrading Arcos Dorados to Overweight (from Froylan Mendez

Neutral), and establishing Dec-2027 price targets for both companies. Our sector (52-55) 5540-9482

stance remains conservative overall, reflecting constrained disposable income in froylan.mendez@jpmchase.com

the key regions (Mexico and Brazil) and a still-fragile discretionary backdrop. The J.P.MorganMorganGrupoCasaFinancierode Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

rotation is driven by a clear trend change in same-store-sales (SSS) dynamics: for

Lucas Ferreira

Alsea, we see SSS decelerating in Mexico into 2Q with lingering downside risk (55-11) 4950-3629

into 2H; for Arcos, we see SSS accelerating in Brazil in 2Q following a weak 1Q, lucas.x.ferreira@jpmorgan.com

with 2H also expected to improve. This divergence translates into a stark earnings Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

contrast: we expect 2Q EBITDA -5% for Alsea vs +13% for Arcos, and for FY26 Larissa Perez

-1% vs +17%, respectively. We also see downside risk to Alsea’s 2026 guidance, (55-11) 4950-6400

as we forecast ~2% top-line growth vs company guidance of 5–7%, and ~(1%) larissa.perez@jpmchase.com

EBITDA vs guidance of +6–8%; versus consensus, we are ~2% below 26/27E Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

EBITDA for both names and 4–5% below on the top line. While valuation is not

the primary driver of our preference shift, it frames the asymmetry: Alsea trades