SpaceX Next Starship Flight Approaching

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SpaceX Next Starship Flight Approaching

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connect to the larger constellation briefly and provide SpaceX with visual data

about the Ship’s heat shield in preparation for a return flight to the launch pad Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

later this year. This test will carry 20 Starlink broadband V3 satellites, whereas Adj. EPS ($)

2025A 2026E 2027E

future launches are intended to carry up to 60. Q1 (0.94)A 0.46

• One step of many toward rapid reusability. There will be plenty to analyze Q2Q3 (0.25)0.17 0.320.20

from Flight 13, but over time, we expect both progress and setbacks as SpaceX Q4 0.55 0.22

moves toward its goal of launching Starship dozens of times next year, FY (0.84) 0.43 1.19

followed by hundreds of times in 2028, and then thousands beyond. In our

initiation last week (see here), we highlighted two categories of challenges for

SpaceX to tackle on Starship: one dealing with the rocket’s technical

performance and another with scaling the production system (rockets, engines,

fuel, launch pads) and regulatory approvals. This flight will tell us a bit more

about the former, and an ongoing focus will be the cost and time associated with

refurbishing the second stage, given the stress of re-entry. As a result, we will

seek information about the performance of the upper stage thermal protection

system (TPS). Later this year, SpaceX expects to catch an upper stage in the

Mechazilla “chopsticks” at Starbase. This would be impressive, but regarding

the Starship business case, we are a bit more focused on how quickly that same

second stage will refly. Reliability of the V3 Raptor engine is another focus for

Flight 13 after performance shortfalls on Flight 12. For other upcoming

milestones, SpaceX indicated in June that it intends to refuel a Starship in space