TSMC 2Q26 First Take: Upside in FY26 revenue guide and capex; GMs slightly lower than market expectations

研报英文原文证据摘录

TSMC 2Q26 First Take: Upside in FY26 revenue guide and capex; GMs slightly lower than market expectations

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026

TSMC Overweight

2330.TW, 2330 TT

First Take: 2Q26 - upside to FY26 revenue guide and Price (15 Jul 26):NT$2440.0

capex; GMs slightly lower than market expectations Price Target (Jun-27):NT$3100.0

Our First Take: TSMC's 2Q earnings came in better than expected, helped by

strong operating leverage (driving OP margins to 60+% for the first time), while

revenue and GMs came in at the top of the guidance range. The positive surprises

came from the revenue guidance upgrade (to 40+% YoY) in 2026 and the capex

upside ($60-64 bn in 2026, with significant upside in 2027/28 as well), and strong

AI demand commentary, suggesting AI demand trends are likely to remain strong

into 2029-30. In the very short term, the stock is likely to be weighed down by the Technology and Telecoms

AClack of meaningful upside in near-term GMs vs. investor expectations of high 60- Gokul Hariharan

70%. However, we believe that GMs are likely to settle in the high 60% range in (852) 2800-8564

the next several quarters, despite N2 and overseas Fab dilution, as N3 profitability gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

continues to improve (likely crossing over with Corporate profitability in 2H26) J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

and TSMC continues to run at very high utilization with increasing operational

Jennifer Hsieh

efficiency. Longer term, we came away with the view that pricing and GMs will (886-2) 2725-9868

slowly trend higher as TSMC is able to contribute more value to its key customers. jennifer.hsieh@jpmorgan.com

Messaging around competition was quite emphatic, with TSMC exuding J.P.