Discounted, not defeated

研报英文原文证据摘录

Discounted, not defeated

Macquarie Equity Research MiniMax Group

Key Risks to Investment Thesis Company Description

• Intensifying competition from peers. Founded in 2021, MiniMax gradually evolved from a research-

• New model capabilities fall short of expectations. driven model developer into an AI platform. As of December

• Uncertain monetisation and profitability trajectory. 31, 2025, MiniMax had cumulatively served 236mn users

across 200+ countries and regions, alongside 214k enterprise

• Uncertainty with achieving successful and timely customers and developers, with international markets

innovations. contributing ~73% of total revenue. In 2025, revenue reached

• Intellectual property risk. US$79.0mn, up by 159% YoY, reflecting rapid expansion of

• Reliance on overseas markets and geopolitical risk. both consumer and enterprise monetisation.

Figure 1 - MiniMax: Revenue by segment Figure 2 - MiniMax: Gross profit by segment

US$ mn US$ mn

7,000 5,000

4,500

6,000

4,000

5,000 3,500

3,000

4,000 2,500

3,000 2,000

1,500

2,000 1,000

1,000

-

- -500

2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

Open Platform AI-native products Open Platform AI-native products

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2026 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2026

MiniMax Group (100 HK) USD/(m) unless otherwise noted

Income Statement Dec FY 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E 2H/25A 1H/26E Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

Revenue 79.0 301.7 876.7 1,760 46.6 118.4 Cash 507.6 15,006 10,901 11,304

Cost of Goods Sold 59.0 161.9 364.1 635.6 32.8 70.4 Receivables 10.7 67.4 193.3 383.2

Gross Profit 20.1 139.8 512.6 1,124 13.9 48.0 Inventories 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBITDA (288.2) (617.9) (488.3) (369.3) (163.1) (280.0) Investments 438.5 442.9 447.3 451.8