Japan Essentials - 14 Jul 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

Japan Essentials - 14 Jul 2026

3Q26 GGR estimate cut to flat YoY. We believe the World Cup diversion 40%

effect will continue to weigh on July results, although the VIP impact 20%

from the APAC meeting in June may no longer affect the month. We 0%

estimate a MoM improvement from June but still expect a YoY decline 2022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 2026-04

in the teens. According to our data provider, MTD ADR dropped 13% Source: DSEC, Macquarie Research, July 2026

YoY, and the provider estimates a 7-11% GGR decline in July. Despite a

high base, we expect August GGR to remain resilient, supported by the Figure 3 - Coverage table

return of players following the end of the World Cup. We estimate that Stock Ticker Rating Price (LCY) TP (LCY) TSR (%)

September GGR will deliver high-teens growth, driven by the low base Galaxy 27 HK Outperform 31.00 46.20 53.87 Sands China 1928 HK Neutral 13.22 16.70 32.03

resulting from last year's typhoon disruption. We revise our 3Q26 GGR MGM China 2282 HK Outperform 10.16 13.00 34.51

forecast to flat YoY from our previous forecast of a low- to mid-single- Wynn Macau 1128 HK Outperform 5.18 9.10 83.55

digit increase. As a result, we now forecast full-year 2026 GGR growth of Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2026

3.4%, down from our previous forecast of 6.0%. Priced as of 13 July 2026

• Attractive dividend yields across the sector. Wynn Macau offers the Figure 4 - Upcoming major

highest dividend yield at c9%. Sands China offers a dividend yield of 7.5% entertainment activities in Macau

Artists/events Date no.of shows following its share-price decline in recent months. Galaxy and MGM China Galaxy TF Family Sports Meet 16-17 July 2