CELC - BUY - Survey Says...Stock Still Has Upside Potential On The Commercial Launch; ~55% Of All 2L+ HR+ mBC Patients Expected To Receive Geda

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CELC - BUY - Survey Says...Stock Still Has Upside Potential On The Commercial Launch; ~55% Of All 2L+ HR+ mBC Patients Expected To Receive Geda

July 14, 2026

Brad Canino brad.canino@guggenheimpartners.com CELC - BUY - Survey Says...Stock Still Has Upside

212 823 6558 Potential On The Commercial Launch; ~55% Of All 2L

Josh Boen

Joshua.Boen@guggenheimpartners.com + HR+ mBC Patients Expected To Receive Geda

212 518 5345

Key Message: We defended the stock after the ASCO pullback because we didn't

think negative market sentiment on a positive but lower-than-expected mPFS

CELC BUY numbernew surveyhaddatanegativesuggestingcommercialthe gedatolisibimplicationspeak(LINK),sales andcouldcontinuebe strongto doenoughso withto

Celcuity Inc. reward shareholders through a commercial launch. These survey results lead us to

Sector: Biotechnology have increased conviction in our geda estimates. We acknowledge geda needs to be a

big drug to support upside from today's >$7bn fully-diluted market cap, and we think it will

Company Update be. Our HR+ mBC market model includes current and future competition and considers

Share Price $103.79 penetration maximums based on molecular subgroups (PIK3CA and ESR1). Net-net, we

Price Target $165.00 model peak penetration for geda of ~40% in 2L and an extra ~20% in 3L, which gets us to

$3.3bn peak sales in the US alone. We think this is supported by our survey that suggests

54% of patients will receive geda at some point (2L+) across the 5 lines of therapy usually

Revenue ($M) administered to patients. We think the sequencing potential of this metastatic cancer

(FY DEC) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY market, which is relatively unique to solid tumors, remains underappreciated as one of the