First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Middle East blockade to return" Shaw

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Middle East blockade to return" Shaw

ay by 8%. CATL-A also corrected 7% on Friday, though the

whole-week decline is more moderate at 9%. During our conversations with investors,

some have expressed concerns about the ESS outlook amid the recent cooldown of

AIDC-related sentiment, while others have been taking profit ahead of Q2 earnings, to

be reported on 24 July, to avoid earnings risk. While we have seen initiatives from EV

makers seeking more favorable pricing support from the battery supply chain amid their

own cost pressure, and we agree at the current stage BYD-H may appear more favorable

to some investors as a stock relative to CATL-H, we believe such share price volatilities

are unwarranted. Should there be deeper correction, it would constitute even better

opportunities especially for CATL-A, as its H-share is still trading at a 45% premium over

A-share. Link to note. Source: UBS.

Met Coal - Fundamentals still challenging, but… : Improved outlook from 2028,

but China disruption key driver near-term. The benchmark premium low vol (PLV)

hard coking coal price has been broadly stable in 2026 at ~$240/t after lifting in mid-Jan

(up $40/t vs 4Q25) on supply concerns in QLD; other coking coal qualities (SSCC, PCI,

HV-A) have also lifted vs 4Q25 level, but more modestly. China is supporting seaborne

prices with disruption following the accident on 22-May driving up domestic met coal

prices; lower freight rates are also supportive; ex-China demand has softened with India

subdued during the monsoon season. We expect the benchmark PLV prices to moderate

in 2H26, softening to ~$230/t in 2027 due to higher supply from Australia and the

recovery in China domestic supply. We review our supply-demand forecasts - see Figure