First Read: Avanza "4% Q2 beat: Market gains, Fees & NII " (Neutral) Tam

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First Read: Avanza "4% Q2 beat: Market gains, Fees & NII " (Neutral) Tam

with expectations. UBS Cons.

12/26E 20.10 18.83

Q: Has the company's outlook/guidance changed? 12/27E 20.86 20.35

A: No. Avanza has guided to 9% cost growth for the Swedish business for 2026, despite 12/28E 22.21 22.38

the Q2 outcome being much higher than this at +15%. Phase out of external deposits is

Haley Tam

now complete. Focus on Private Banking remains in place, with broader Avanza Sigma

Analyst

launch planned later this year and access to analyst research already available. haley.tam@ubs.com

Occupational pension improvements include a collaboration with Benifex and the +44-20-7567 6176

launch of a new Pension Portal for corporate customers. 4.7% leverage ratio is in line

Amit Jagadeesh

with guidance, and would support SEK 43bn increase in deposits. Results call at 9am

UK / 10am CEST (link here). 2030 targets are unchanged for average annual 15% amit.jagadeesh@ubs.com

growth in savings capital to over SEK 2,000 billion, 8% average annual cost growth - +44-20-7567 9705

higher at the start and reaching 5% in 2030. Annual ROE >35%, lower cost to savings

Michael Werner

capital ratio over time. Analyst

michael.werner@ubs.com

Q: How would we expect investors to react? +44-20-7568 8086

A: At 18.2x 2027E PE, Avanza trades at around the average of its recent (post 2021)

historical trading range, even as it trades at the widest (>4x PE point) discount to peer

Nordnet. Given its relative underperformance in recent months, we expect a positive

response to these results, despite cost growth questions, helped by a positive outlook

statement from the CEO: "Despite ongoing and significant geopolitical uncertainty, risk

appetite has strengthened considerably, and we have finally received indications of the