Elevra Lithium "Leveraged Québécois Lithium Producer" (Buy) Spry

研报英文原文证据摘录

Elevra Lithium "Leveraged Québécois Lithium Producer" (Buy) Spry

Elevra Lithium UBS Research

executive summary

Elevra Lithium (ELV.ASX) is a North America-focused hardrock lithium producer. Post the Strong balance sheet to pursue

Sayona/Piedmont (SYA.ASX/PLL.ASX) merger and the May 2026 A$275m equity raise at growth

A$12.20/sh (now ~A$9/sh after weakness in spodumene pricing), it remains well

funded (US$321m cash) to pursue its growth plans. The balance sheet is further

enhanced with expected net proceeds of US$63m from the sale of its share of the

Ewoyaa project in Ghana and ongoing cash generation from NAL.

We model production from its 100%-owned North American Lithium (NAL) operation in NAL could generate significant

Québec, growing from 198kt in FY26 to ~350ktpa by FY30 and then complemented by cashflow in the coming years and is

~450ktpa from Moblan (ELV 60%), with first ore in FY33. This would take its equity ~85% of our NPV-based valuation

share of production to ~600ktpa spodumene or ~75ktpa LCE. While we believe Moblan

will prove to be a more valuable asset (larger, longer life, lower cost, etc), it is longer

dated and pre-capex, while NAL is primed to capitalise on this price upcycle. This is

reflected in our valuation split with NAL comprising ~85% of our NPV and Moblan

~10%. We only include a nominal valuation for Carolina (with potentially integrated

downstream conversion opportunities) in the US and its suite of exploration assets.

Trading at a discount to peers (FY27 EV/EBITDA of 1.5x vs. peers ~3x), it appears the ELV trades at a >30% discount to our

market is still digesting the new, post-merger outlook for ELV, with its attractive long- SOTP NPV

term growth options and strong FCF generation on our lithium price forecast.