US Brokers and Asset Managers "2Q26 Alt Manager Preview: A Firmer..."

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US Brokers and Asset Managers "2Q26 Alt Manager Preview: A Firmer..."

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

US Brokers and Asset Managers Equities

Americas2Q26 Alt Manager Preview: A Firmer Foundation

for the Back Half Financial

Michael Brown

Analyst

mike.brown@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1387

The Path to a Re-Rating Runs Through Flows and Exits Vijeth Mudalegundi

Alternative asset managers entered 2026 on shaky footing, with pressure from AI- Analyst

related disruption concerns and elevated non-traded BDC redemptions. The 2Q setup is vijeth.mudalegundi@ubs.com

reasonable, but we expect fairly uneventful results, making outlook commentary key. +1-212-649 8172

Overall, sentiment is gradually improving across the group, which could support further Mary Mahrer

upside. Still, we believe investors want to see tangible improvement in redemptions (to Analyst

less bad—perhaps in 3Q) and realizations (perhaps acceleration comes through in the mary.mahrer@ubs.com

fall), not just encouraging outlook commentary for a more meaningful re-rating. +1-212-713 9014

Daniel Lehmann

Not a Bad Quarter—Just Not a Great One; Mixed EPS Revisions/Trends in 2Q Associate Analyst

Our 2Q estimates are modestly below consensus, driven primarily by softer realized daniel-j.lehmann@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2391

performance fees. On average, we are ~1% below the Street, with the largest shortfalls

at APO, ARES, STEP, and TPG. Offsetting some of this pressure, strong performance Cory Johnson

across wealth-oriented products should support fee-related performance revenues Associate Analyst

(FRPR) at several firms, leaving us above consensus for KKR, BX, and HLNE. Transaction cory.johnson@ubs.com

+1-212-882 0078

fees on strong deployment is also a key trend this quarter, supporting upward EPS

revisions at APO and CG.