US Restaurants "Focus on Underlying Demand Despite Noise" Geiger

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US Restaurants "Focus on Underlying Demand Despite Noise" Geiger

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US Restaurants Equities

AmericasFocus on Underlying Demand Despite Noise

Restaurants

Dennis Geiger, CFA

Investors focused on underlying sales trends into 3Q; Casual dining topical Analyst

Our investor discussions last week focused on the latest sales trends, headwinds / dennis.geiger@ubs.com

tailwinds impacting trends, and the trajectory into 3Q. +1-212-713 9313

Paul Hao Investors remain focused on current industry demand trends, with discussions

Associate Analyst

often addressing impacts from calendar shifts, weather, and the world cup. World paul.hao@ubs.com

cup discussions have focused on potential benefits for several brands, including: +1-201-352 1091

WING, DPZ, CMG, and CAKE, among others, (see chart inside for geospatial brand

Nikhil Gunderia

exposure to world cup venues) as well as credit card alt data understating spend

because of international tourism. nikhil.gunderia@ubs.com

Separately, CAVA was among the most topical restaurants in our conversations, +1-212-713 3258

with investors in recent weeks surprised by the share pullback, likely a result of Emily Li

slowing alt data trends, with inbound calls from both hedge fund holders and Associate Analyst

perspective long only investors. emily.li@ubs.com

+1-212-649 8262

Discussions were also heavily focused on the strength of casual dining stocks in

recent weeks following the Middle East memorandum signing, with debate

around expectations for a miss / beat at TXRH and EAT, while a sizable beat is

anticipated for CAKE (2Q of at least 4% sss relative to consensus' 1.5%). CAKE

discussions were particularly elevated last week, while we'd note sentiment in