Millicom "Q2 Preview: All eyes on FY26 guidance update, despite short-term..."

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Millicom "Q2 Preview: All eyes on FY26 guidance update, despite short-term..."

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

Millicom Equities

ColombiaQ2 Preview: All eyes on FY26 guidance update,

despite short-term pressure on EFCF; Maintain Wireless Communications

12-month rating NeutralNeutral

12m price target US$100.00

Prior : US$90.00

Maintain Neutral; PT raised by 11% Price (13 Jul 2026) US$96.32

We updated our TIGO model ahead of the Q2 print on Aug-6th, incorporating a more RIC: TIGO.O BBG: TIGO US

back-end loaded EFCF in 2026E. We expect 2Q26 EFCF to be pressured by (i) a

pickup in Capex in Colombia, primarily related to the ongoing 5G rollout, (ii) still Trading data and key metrics

meaningful restructuring charges from the Coltel integration, and (iii) the payment 52-wk range US$96.96-38.89

related to La Nación’s stake in Coltel. For the FY26, however, we fine-tuned our Market cap. US$16.1b

estimates upwards, reflecting a lower capex trajectory than previously anticipated Shares o/s 167m (COM)

and EBITDA supported by more favourable FX. We believe the upcoming guidance Free float 60%

update will be key to assessing the near-term value unlock from the Colombia Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,732

integration, particularly given management’s increased visibility on Coltel Avg. daily value (m) US$148.7

synergies since Q1. Even with the stock @7x EV/EBITDA - amid M&A integration and

Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$3.13b

further shareholder consolidation in the quarter - we avoided incorporating further

P/BV (12/26E) 5.2x

re-rating. We remain Neutral with PT raised to $100 (from $90).

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.6x

Short term focus remains on Colombia execution EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

We believe investor discussions should remain centered on the execution of the From To % ch Cons.