Nanya Technology Corporation (2408 TT, NT$435.50) - Fundamentals still intact but upcycle debates to persist

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Nanya Technology Corporation (2408 TT, NT$435.50) - Fundamentals still intact but upcycle debates to persist

he company is collaborating with

multiple customers to develop customized AI/WoW products to meet AI infrastructure

Source: CMoney needs. We expect this year’s server sales will include mVidia’s SOCAMM, and in the next

two years, customized HBM-like products will be launched with Qualcomm and otherWhat’s changed

New Old % customers. Meanwhile, the first phase of the new plant is planned to reach a capacity of

Rating Buy Buy 30,000 wafers/month by 2028; full capacity can reach 45,000 wafers, with total capex of

Target price 548 548 0 about US$16bn. The new plant will sequentially introduce 1C, 1D, 1E process nodes, and will

EPS forecast 59.16 60.89 -3 begin using EUV equipment for production starting in 2028.

Target PE 9.3 9

2H26 prices slightly up, FY26 EPS estimated at NT$59Financial summary Year-end: Dec 31

NT$mn FY26F FY27F FY28F Looking ahead to 2H26, TrendForce estimates 3Q26 consumer DRAM ASP will rise about

Net sales 330,184 416,219 451,279 28~40% QoQ, and other traditional DRAM will rise about 10~20%; 4Q26 overall DRAM

YoY growth (%) 395.9 26.1 8.4 ASP climb is about +3~8%. NTC’s niche DRAM shipment remains mainstream, and we

Op profit 246,608 308,131 267,841

YoY growth (%) 4,603.3 24.9 -13.1 thus project 3Q26 ASP will climb 26~28% QoQ and sales volume to drop 3% QoQ.

Net profit 204,108 253,701 221,018 Overall, we forecast 3Q26 consolidated sales of NT$101.12bn, up 22.5% QoQ and 438.5%

YoY growth (%) 2,986.1 24.3 -12.9 YoY, GM of 83.6%, and EPS of NT$18.87. For 4Q26, ASP increase is estimated at 2~5%,

EPS (NT$) 59.16 73.53 64.06

which should offset part of the sales volume decline, and thus consolidated sales and GM

DPS (NT$) 25.0 30.0 30.0