CIR (1K) | Buy | More dividends, more buybacks (preview)

研报英文原文证据摘录

CIR (1K) | Buy | More dividends, more buybacks (preview)

This leads to a slight revision of our 2026-27 Total div/share 0.00 0.00 0.00

estimates (sales down 0-1% and EBITDA down 3-4%).

FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Deconstructing the forecasts GAV 896.7 896.7 896.7

We now forecast KOS to deliver c.3.7% (+3.9% before) revenue growth in FY26, NAV 1,051.5 1,078.1 1,116.2

NAV/share 1.28 1.36 1.41

supported by pricing and occupancy improvements, while incorporating a more BV/share 0.79 0.82 0.87

conservative view on capacity expansion and a slower margin recovery than Dividend yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

previously anticipated. Prem/(disc) to NAV -40.4% -43.7% -45.6%

Net debt/GAV -17.3% -20.2% -24.5%

On the other hand, we expect CIR to report FY26 net income of c.EUR44m,

supported by higher dividend distributions from KOS, while the holding business

remains around break-even, excluding dividends.

We forecast net cash to decline to c.EUR155m, reflecting the full acquisition of

KOS and the ongoing share buyback programme, before gradually improving from

FY27 onwards.

NAV and TP accretion driven by additional buyback and WACC assumption

With the reduction in our WACC to 8.5% (from 9.4%), due to improving House DCF

assumptions, we revisit our KOS valuation, moving from EUR600m (driven by the

takeover price of minorities announced at the end of 2025) to EUR700m (DCF and

Opco/Propco based).

Filippo Piva

We refresh our NAV by updating KOS' valuation and fine-tuning the share count. Equity Research Analyst

The upward revision to KOS' valuation, the accretive effect of the voluntary tender +39 02 80 62 80 09

fpiva@keplercheuvreux.com offer performed in H1 and the ongoing share buyback (which we partially factor