Ericsson (1K) | Hold | Some downward pressure on margins ahead

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ericsson (1K) | Hold | Some downward pressure on margins ahead

#EstimatesRevision

Release date: 15 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldEricsson

Sweden | IT Hardware & Semis Beta Profile: MCap: SEK332.2bn

Target Price: SEK105.00 Change in TP: 0.0 % Bloomberg: ERICB SS Reuters: ERICb.ST

Current Price: SEK98.54 Change in Sales: 0.9% 26E/0.7% 27E Free float 81%

Up/downside: 6.6% Change in Adj EBIT: 3.8% 26E/2.8% 27E Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 1,924.7

YTD abs performance 8.8% Market data: 14 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 4.6% 26E/1.1% 27E

52-week high/low (SEK) 127.35/70.26

Some downward pressure on margins ahead Price performance

Why this report?

Despite muted underlying trends in the RAN market ahead, Ericsson still sees

some growth opportunities around edge AI and entreprise connectivity with

network APIs and mission-critical networks (including defence). We still

expect low-single-digit organic growth over 2026-28E, while margins have

peaked in 2025 and should feel some pressure in the coming quarters (with

network rollouts picking up from Q3 and higher input costs, and specifically

higher component costs). We keep Hold rating with SEK105 TP.

Key findings

Following a 25% drop over 2022-24, Dell’Oro still expects a flattish RAN market in

2026 (-2% vs. -1% in 2025), with the US down by 5-10%, Europe flattish and China

down by 10%. FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Despite muted underlying trends, the mobile data traffic growth has stabilised at Sales 226,953 233,980 241,120

+20-22% YOY over the past few quarters, and Ericsson now sees mobile data traffic EBITDA adj. 39,021 41,255 42,975

EBIT adj. 32,286 34,230 35,750expanding at +20% CAGR until the end of the decade. Net profit adj. 22,622 24,814 26,696