Wolfe Consumer Checks

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Wolfe Consumer Checks

Leisure, Restaurants & Food Retailers

Wolfe Consumer Checks July 11, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

Our weekly includes a recap of recent developments and latest Wolfe checks across the consumer sector.

Consumer

The US and Iran have begun trading strikes again in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the existing ceasefire agreement.

The US has reported that there are ongoing talks regarding a permanent peace deal, and they're committed to finding a

diplomatic solution. However, the skirmishes within the Strait has reduced Maritime traffic in the area, and Brent Crude

prices have risen +6% since the latest strikes began, taking its YTD gains up to +25%. Click here for the latest from

Bloomberg.

President Trump continues to make headlines this week with President Trump on Truth Social reporting that

Walmart would cut prices, which was swiftly followed by a Business Wire release highlighting rollbacks at Walmart

and Sam's. We view the announcement as part of Walmart's existing plans to lower grocery prices versus an incremental

investment (at this point). It does fuel the investor narrative that grocery will get even more competitive in the 2H and

that a price war could impact industry profits. Click here for Spencer's full takeaways on the matter & price gaps study.

Existing Home Sales this week came in at 4.09mm vs estimates of 4.2mm, missing consensus by 2.6%, but growing

+2.8% YoY. Based on our projections, we now see EHS rising +LSD% for the full-year 2026, but think the housing

market stay largely muted with rates remaining elevated. Higher priced home sales continue to outpace lower priced

homes as the housing affordability crisis continues to worsen. With ~2 rate hikes priced into the yield curve by year-