Shipbuilding - Japan: 1Q preview: No earnings surprises expected; looking for order recovery

研报英文原文证据摘录

Shipbuilding - Japan: 1Q preview: No earnings surprises expected; looking for order recovery

Order repatriation and policy support

Order repatriation potential to Japanese shipyards

Domestic shipbuilding stocks have recently underperformed the broader market. While

part of this likely reflects investor preference for high-profile themes such as AI and

semiconductors, we believe the primary driver has been slower newbuilding orders.

Global newbuilding orders rose 66% YoY in 2026 YTD, with Chinese orders doubling,

while Japanese orders declined 74%, highlighting a clear shift toward Chinese shipyards.

Exhibit 2: Japanese order backlog continues to trend lower Exhibit 3: China continues to gain backlog share

Japanese newbuilding order backlog (mn CGT) Newbuilding order backlog by country (mn CGT)

18 Japan China South Korea

16 100%

90% 14

80%

12 70%

10 60%

8 50%

40%

6 30%

4 20%

2 10%

0% 0

Source: Clarksons Research Source: Clarksons Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

We believe the shift toward Chinese shipyards seen in 2026 could begin to reverse.

Order migration to China has been supported by both lower prices and shorter delivery

times. However, orders at Chinese yards have surged since the start of 2026, with

delivery slots increasingly extending into 2028-30, similar to those at Japanese yards. As

a result, China's key competitive advantage of shorter lead times is likely gradually

fading.

Exhibit 4: Long-dated orders at Japanese shipyards have slowed in Exhibit 5: Long-dated orders have surged at Chinese shipyards in 2026

2026 Dry bulk orders at Chinese shipyards by delivery year (CGT)

Dry bulk orders at Japanese shipyards by delivery year (CGT)

5,000,000

1,000,000 2025 2026 (YTD)

2025 2026 (YTD)

4,000,000

800,000

3,000,000

600,000

2,000,000

400,000