Ceasefire Intermission; Refining Estimates & Targets Move Higher

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Ceasefire Intermission; Refining Estimates & Targets Move Higher

names, provide detailed earnings updates for

XOM, CVX, and SHEL in addition to VLO, MPC, and PSX where we

▪ Onshore and Offshore Rig Rundown

also significantly boost price targets based on the improved visibility of

▪ Stock Performance above-mid-cycle margins well into 2027. Details within.

Upcoming Events OXY fits the market backdrop better than it would have at any time

over the past 2+ years. We upgraded OXY to Outperform after ~three

ISI Energy Rundown – Thursdays at 10AM ET years at Underperform because the original impediments to owning the

Register here stock have become less binding. The Berkshire preferred and leverage

Please contact your Evercore ISI sales rep for details profile had long capped common-equity torque to oil and constrained

the shareholder-return path. That is changing. OXY has reduced net Links to Prior Reports

debt and has a clearer path to address the preferred in the 2029

July 2026 window. More important, the operational story is no longer just “better

▪ OVV: 2Q26 Preview: Transition Intact; Watch for a commodity price equals better OXY.” Lower well costs and a shallower

Firmer Return Framework base-decline path should reduce maintenance capital over time, flatten

▪ OXY: Upgrade to Outperform and lift FCF, and support a buyback restart around the back half of

▪ COP: 2Q26 Preview: Consistency Is the Datapoint 2028E. The call is about closing the discount as self-help becomes

June 2026 more visible, while still retaining meaningful crude leverage.

▪ The Front Reflects Glut, Equities Offer Value Where we stand? There is still no putting “humpty” back together again

▪ Peace Priced, Flows Unproven for global energy markets, but the issue has evolved from acute outage