The Progressive Corp.: June 2026 Results: Is Growth Peaking?

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The Progressive Corp.: June 2026 Results: Is Growth Peaking?

Update

July 15, 2026 12:58 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMThe Progressive Corp. | North America Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

June 2026 Results: Is Growth Bob.Huang@morganstanley.comDaniel Lee, ACAS +1 212 761-6136

Research Associate

Daniel.Lee4@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0219

Peaking? Siddhant Shah

Sid.Shah@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2603

Reaction to earnings

The Progressive Corp. (PGR.N, PGR US)

Unchanged Modest shortfall Largely unchanged

Insurance - Property & Casualty | United States of

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS America

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View Attractive

Price target $190.00

Slowing down, but is it a one time thing? Auto PIF growth of 45k came in notably Shr price, close (Jul 14, 2026) $226.58

below expectations. While buy-side and sell-side both had varying views on how Mkt cap, curr (mm) $132,700

52-Week Range $254.87-189.31

growth will trend, the 45k PIF growth in Personal Auto represented a significant

step down vs what the company has done over the past several years. This lead to a

~2.5% YoY net written premium growth for the month, which is one of the lowest

since 2020. Adding to the headwind, the company saw ~90% combined ratio for the

month, with attritional loss ratio above 70%, first time since October 2024. This

indicates that while losses are still manageable, personal auto is seeing visible

normalization (for the worse). While the print is below our expectations, the key

question is the durability of the current results. We believe the trend of slower

growth and lower margin is intact, and the pace of this trend will likely be more

gradual.