Hungary Economics and Macro Strategy: NBH Preview: Reducing Tightness

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Hungary Economics and Macro Strategy: NBH Preview: Reducing Tightness

st 2%Y in May. NBH-defined food inflation fell further into negative territory, reaching -3%Y

Outcome MS Forecast

Tolerance band from -2.4%Y in May. While unprocessed food prices continued to decline at an accelerated

Source: NBH forecasts, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts pace, processed food inflation showed signs of moderating declines. NBH-defined core

inflation excluding indirect taxes but including processed food remained stable at 2%Y,

Exhibit 5: Inflation gained some

slightly below our 2.1%Y forecast. Meanwhile, the measure excluding all food items ticked

momentum in June

up to 3.1%Y from 3%Y, in line with our forecast. The increase reflected unfavourable base

3m/3m SAAR, %

10 10 effects in core goods inflation, following the introduction of profit margin caps on certain

9 9

8 8 household goods. The more contemporaneous 3-month over 3-month SAAR measures

7 7

6 6

5 5 showed some acceleration in June. Headline rose to 2.5% from 2%, while core inflation

4 4

3 3 increased to 1.9% from 1.6% in May. That said, the NBH noted these measures remain

2 2

1 1 subdued overall.

0 0

A moderating inflation undershoot of inflation in 2H26: As we continue to track food

Base Rate, % Headline

Core excluding processed food Core excl. indirect taxes inflation weakness into July and August, we revise down slightly our full-year average CPI

Source: Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research forecast for 2026 to 1.9%Y from 2%Y and to 3%Y from 3.2%Y for 2027. While we continue

to expect inflation to accelerate slightly from September onwards, we still see it

Exhibit 6: Regular earnings growth undershooting the 3%Y target at year-end. That said, with unfavourable base effects