Midterms: Socialism vs State Capitalism

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Midterms: Socialism vs State Capitalism

ir program (i.e. culture, race, 20%15% 17% 19% 19%

10% 7%xenophobia) vs complex economic and social agenda of the left. 2. For the 12%

first time since the 1930s, socialists and extreme right are attracting large 5%0%

followings, tilting scales away from a moderate middle. First, the highest 1995Conservative 2000Liberal/Very Liberal2010 Net Conservative2020 Tilt 2025

ever ~45% of Americans no longer affiliate with Democrats or Republicans.

If the US did not operate on a first-past-the-post system, now would be Source: Gallup; Macquarie Global Strategy

the best ever time to start a third party. Second, neoliberal economic Positive View of Big Businesses -

policies damaged trust in capitalism and private businesses, with favorable steep drop

views of businesses collapsing from ~60% a decade ago to ~37%. Socialism

has gone mainstream, with ~40% of Americans having a positive view, 80%70% Positive View of Big Business 76%

57% 60% 56%including 2/3 of Democrats and ~40% of Independents. This is also reflected 60%

in a declining conservative tilt. In '95, conservatives exceeded those who 50%40% 46% 36% 37%

30%identified as liberals by 21%. Today, the gap is ~7%. Third, a rupture emerged

between Republicans and Democrats, with the Republican conservative tilt 20%10% 17%

0%increasing over three decades from ~50% to ~75% (no liberals left) while Democrats Independents Republicans National

2012 2025the Democratic liberal tilt rose from zero to >50% (no conservatives left).

3. Tectonic shifts coincide with collapse in Trump's ratings across issues: Source: Gallup; Macquarie Global Strategy

inflation, jobs, economy, immigration. Trump is trailing not just Trump

1.0 but also Biden.