Core margin resilience offsets macro headwinds

研报英文原文证据摘录

Core margin resilience offsets macro headwinds

Macquarie Equity Research JD.com

Key Risks to Investment Thesis Company Description

• Food delivery expansion remains uncertain and volatile as JD.com is one of the leading online direct sales ecommerce

peers' strategy change could shift the landscape in a short company (excluding platforms) in China. The company offers

time. superior customer experience through its self-built and

• Weaker-than-expected retail sales, which could compress operated nationwide fulfillment infrastructure, JD Logistics.

the revenue outlook, and a slower replenishment cycle for It provides its product offerings through jd.com with a focus

durable goods, which could also reduce core 1P growth. on categories like electronics products, and home appliances.

• China's EC remains competitive. Competitive intensity JD also operates offline retail market through 7FRESH and

provides on-demand delivery with DADA and JD Daojia. could result in uncertainty.

Figure 1 - JD group by segment revenue trend Figure 2 - Adj. OP and margin trend

RMB mn RMB mn

1,600,000 35% 14,000 6.0%

12,000 5.0%

1,400,000 30% 10,000 4.0%

8,000

3.0% 1,200,000

25% 6,000

2.0%

1,000,000 4,000

20% 2,000 1.0%

800,000 0 0.0%

15% -2,000 -1.0%

600,000

-4,000 -2.0%

10%

400,000 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E

200,000 5%

Adj. OP Adj. OP margin % (RHS)

0 0%

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2026

Product revenues Service revenues YoY %

JD.com (JD US) CNY/(bn) unless otherwise noted

Income Statement Dec FY 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Q1/26A Q2/26E Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

Revenue 1,309 1,366 1,445 1,530 315.7 341.8 Cash 149.6 143.1 147.1 161.4