Weekly Muse-ings: ASML & TSMC to Kick-Start 2Q26 Earnings, We Offer Our Thoughts

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Weekly Muse-ings: ASML & TSMC to Kick-Start 2Q26 Earnings, We Offer Our Thoughts

Semiconductors & Semiconductor

Equipment

EQUITY RESEARCH Industry Report

July 11, 2026

Weekly Muse-ings: ASML & TSMC to Kick-Start 2Q26

Research Analysts:

C.J. Muse Earnings, We Offer Our Thoughts

212-915-1935

CJ.Muse@cantor.com Semiconductor stocks outperformed the S&P this week (SOX +1% vs. S&P

Matthew Prisco 500 flat), bringing the SOX to +82% YTD. In April, we highlighted a vision for

212-610-2416 a return to "Risk On" this earnings cycle, driving expected outperformance Matthew.Prisco@cantor.com

for Semis, with rank order of preference being Memory, then Compute, and Jamison Phillips-Crone, CFA

720-320-9242 then SPE. With the SOX +~50% since then (outperforming S&P by 40+%

jamison.phillips-crone@cantor.com points), markets are likely more volatile, but no change to our AI-led multi-

Nick Monroe year bullishness for Semis. Our Top Picks are MU & SNDK in Memory, WDC

212-829-5456

Nick.Monroe@cantor.com & STX in Storage, NVDA, AVGO, & AMD in AI Compute, and ASML, AMAT,

LRCX, KLAC, TER, & MKSI in Semi Cap.

Potential Catalysts: The on-calendar earnings cycle begins again with ASML

and TSMC reporting in the early morning on Wednesday and Thursday,

respectively.

ASML - Expect a Raise for the CY26 Guide, Followed By Conversations of a

Rapidly Building Backlog, Need to Add Capacity and Backlog Building for

CY28: We look for ASML to post a modest beat for the June Q, followed

by a robust raise for the September Q guide, driven by a significant step-

up in System sales. More importantly, after disappointment in April that

ASML did not quantitatively discuss CY27, we believe management will

begin to address the fact that ASML is largely sold out for CY27 and

actively building backlog for CY28.