European Consumer Staples: Global Beverages: US Alcohol - is the consumption slowdown structural or cyclical?

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European Consumer Staples: Global Beverages: US Alcohol - is the consumption slowdown structural or cyclical?

Equity Research

14 July 2026

European Consumer Staples

Global Beverages: US Alcohol - is SIGNATURE

the consumption slowdown

European Consumer Staplesstructural or cyclical?

NEUTRAL

The debate over whether the US spirits slowdown is cyclical European Consumer Staples

Laurence Whyattor structural remains highly relevant. While we still view the

current weakness as largely cyclical, updated data has +44laurence.whyatt@barclays.com(0)20 7773 5324

increased our concerns around emerging structural Barclays, UK

pressures. Ashutosh Jain

+91 (0)22 6175 1452

ashutosh.jain@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

 Listen Imogen McCurley

+44 (0)20 3555 4999

imogen.mccurley@barclays.com

The US remains one of the most attractive alcohol markets globally, but the drivers of Barclays, UK

future growth are evolving. While demographics remain supportive and disposable

Stephen Kennealy, CFAincomes are still among the strongest in the developed world, the market is

+44 (0)20 3555 7835

simultaneously facing a meaningful shift in health perceptions, moderation behaviour and

stephen.kennealy@barclays.com

competitive alternatives. As such, we revisit one of the most debated questions in the Barclays, UK

alcoholic beverages space since 2022: whether the slowdown in the US spirits market is

structural or cyclical. In our November 2024 report, based on the data available at the U.S. CHPC & Beverages

time, we concluded that the slowdown was largely cyclical. We now revisit the debate Lauren R. Lieberman

through a broader and even more comprehensive deep dive into the key technical factors +1 212 526 3112

lauren.lieberman@barclays.comunderpinning it.

BCI, US