Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Framing the Path to Lower Sustaining Capex

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Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Framing the Path to Lower Sustaining Capex

Equity Research

U.S. Integrated Oil & E&P

13 July 2026

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Framing the Path to Lower

Sustaining Capex

We modestly raise 2Q estimates following 8K and see a 4% OXY OVERWEIGHT

CFPS beat. We expect OXY to outline a roadmap for lower Unchanged

sustaining capital through improving capital efficiency, asset U.S. Integrated Oil & E&P UnchangedPOSITIVE

optimization, and lower corporate decline rates, alongside Price Target USD 72.00

continued balance sheet improvement. Unchanged

Price (13-Jul-26) USD 54.81

Potential Upside/Downside +31.4%

Key focus: We see a positive set-up into the 2Q print, with the primary focus on what could be a Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

defining first earnings call for CEO Richard Jackson. We expect management to begin framing

OXY's next phase of value creation, potentially providing an early roadmap for a multi-year cost Market Cap (USD mn) 54515

optimization program and long-term FCF outlook. In our view, this could help crystallize a Shares Outstanding (mn) 994.63

differentiated self-help FCF growth story through 2030. Free Float (%) 72.98

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 12.0We reiterate the thesis behind our May upgrade: OXY is more than a deleveraging story or a call

Dividend Yield (%) 1.90on oil prices. Instead, we see an idiosyncratic set-up driven by improving capital efficiency, asset

Return on Equity TTM (%) 14.12base optimization, and a structurally lower corporate decline rate, all of which should reduce

Current BVPS (USD) 30.92sustaining capital requirements over time. We expect management to discuss these drivers in

Source: Bloomberg

greater detail and potentially quantify the magnitude of FCF growth through 2030, along with