Lifestance Health: Continue to Like Setup Ahead of 2Q – But Appreciate ST Risk of PE Overhang Given Surge in Shares

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lifestance Health: Continue to Like Setup Ahead of 2Q – But Appreciate ST Risk of PE Overhang Given Surge in Shares

Equity Research

U.S. Healthcare Technology & Distribution

14 July 2026

Lifestance Health

Continue to Like Setup Ahead of

2Q – But Appreciate ST Risk of PE

LFST OVERWEIGHTOverhang Given Surge in Shares

Unchanged

LFST is up ~55% YTD (SPX +~10%), reflecting growing U.S. Healthcare Technology NEUTRAL & Distribution

Unchangedappreciation of its LT business model. We expect strong 2Q

results, but the lingering PE overhang represents a ST risk. Price Target USD 13.00 raised 44% from USD 9.00

While hard to predict the timing of any offering-related Price (13-Jul-26) USD 10.88

Potential Upside/Downside +19.5%pullback, we would view it as an opportunity. PT to $13;

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

reiterate OW.

Market Cap (USD mn) 4219

Our 2Q and F26 revenue and EBITDA estimates remain above consensus. We believe Shares Outstanding (mn) 387.83

consensus expectations are reasonable in 2Q given we expect the company will continue to Free Float (%) 57.65

benefit from productivity gains augmenting the core growth algorithm. Notably, consensus is 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 2.8

calling for ~20% revenue growth and ~13% EBITDA margins which is relatively consistent with Dividend Yield (%) N/A

1Q. We believe estimates in 2H26 look more conservative, with consensus calling for revenue Return on Equity TTM (%) 1.58

growth to slow to just LDD and EBITDA margins to decline sequentially vs 1H. While we Current BVPS (USD) 3.81

appreciate the company will start to lap the benefits of productivity gains beginning in 3Q, we Source: Bloomberg

highlight that consensus is below the long-term growth algorithm that calls for mid-teens

growth. Price Performance Exchange-Nasdaq