U.S. Auto Retail: US Auto Dealers 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Tough comps create challenging quarter, but traffic may be clearing

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U.S. Auto Retail: US Auto Dealers 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Tough comps create challenging quarter, but traffic may be clearing

Equity Research

14 July 2026

U.S. Auto Retail

US Auto Dealers 2Q26 Earnings

Preview: Tough comps create Earnings Preview

U.S. Auto Retailchallenging quarter, but traffic

NEUTRAL

Unchangedmay be clearing U.S. Auto Retail

Adjust dealer estimates ahead of 2Q26 earnings. Estimates John Babcock

+1 212 526 6811

move higher for SAH (driven by EchoPark used retail) but flat- john.babcock@barclays.com

to-lower for other dealers. ABG likely to be most challenged BCI, US

given Tekion DMS conversion. GPI earnings could be near Aaron Acquah +1 212 526 1393

inflection point, valuation appears attractive (at 6.7x P/E). aaronj.acquah@barclays.com

BCI, US

Dealers: SAH estimates move higher, others flat-to-down

We adjust our 2Q26 estimates across the dealers, which move higher for SAH but are flat-to-

lower for the other dealers. Recall that YoY comparisons are challenging in 2Q given the tariff-

related pull-forward in demand that occurred in late 1Q and early 2Q of 2025. Our forecasts

assume new vehicle same-store sales will be down an average of -5.4% in 2Q, weaker than the

-0.5% decline in US auto sales. Meanwhile, we forecast used vehicle retail sales will be down

-3.7% in 2Q. We project new vehicle GPUs will be down an average of $66 QoQ and that used

vehicle GPUs will be down $83. We remain broadly constructive on the US auto dealers and we

discuss our estimate and price target changes in more detail below.

ABG most challenged in 2Q w/ Tekion; Expect stronger performance in '27

We expect ABG to report the weakest new and used same-store growth among the US auto

dealers in 2Q. ABG is in the process of converting its stores to the Tekion DMS, and this is