3Q26 Policy Outlook: Blazing Heat & Blistering Policy

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3Q26 Policy Outlook: Blazing Heat & Blistering Policy

TD Securities (USA) LLC POLICY NOTE

July 10, 2026

■WRG Energy Transition & Sustainability 3Q26 Policy Outlook: Blazing Heat &

Blistering Policy

John Miller THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

202 868 5306

We published our 3Q26 policy outlook detailing our sector views + key catalysts.

john.p.miller@tdsecurities.com

■We believe President Trump (R) will be cautious on new China tariffs ahead of planned Xi

Cooper Pryde

visit and midterm elections.

212 468 7804

cooper.pryde@tdsecurities.com ■We believe Trump Admin will remain committed to pro-AI, pro-data center policy through

the midterm elections.

Sector Impacts: Utilities, Energy, Industrials (Nuclear) & Materials

What Happened?

We recently published our 3Q26 policy outlook deck: Blazing Heat & Blistering Policy (HERE).

Deck is a holistic look at themes + catalysts we expect to drive near-term policy outcomes.

What's Our View?

Our best policy ideas:

■China Doves - USTR has teed-up two S301 investigations which directly (overcapacity)

or indirectly (forced labor) target China, raising the question of whether President Trump

(R) will deploy new China-focused tariffs (S301 and/or S232) and risk retaliation ahead of

President Xi's planned September visit and the November midterm elections. We believe

Trump will look to preserve the current U.S.-China trade détente and, as a result, we see

risk to the aggressive re-shoring narrative around critical minerals, commodity metals, and

semiconductors, particularly for industries seeking incremental trade protections.

■Full Steam Ahead on Pro-AI Policy - Opposition to AI and the physical infrastructure

associated with data center development is growing rapidly, but we believe the Trump