Cash Flow Unlock, But Growth Catalysts Need to Materialize

研报英文原文证据摘录

Cash Flow Unlock, But Growth Catalysts Need to Materialize

as *Rev. (MM)

sufficient to drive incremental activity. Our checks suggest it remains too early to determine whether

higher ticket pricing is contributing to larger jackpots. While volatility should normalize over time,

1 - BRSL Estimates vs. Consensuspotential mitigants include enhanced payouts in lower-tier prize buckets to smooth weaker pool Chart2Q26E EBITDAEstimates BRSL Revenue$582.6 JEF RevisedAdj.$268.8 Adj.$0.07EPS Revenue$591.5 JEF Adj.Prior$270.3EBITDAEstimates Adj.$0.07EPS Revenue$601.4 Consensusperiods. At present, we believe it will be challenging for BRSL to deliver above-consensus growth in 2026E Adj.$268.2EBITDAEstimates Adj.$0.09EPS Revenue(3.1%) JEFAdj.vs.0.2%ConsensusEBITDA Adj.(26.0%)EPS

BRSL $2,497.2RevenueJEF RevisedAdj.$1,165.8EBITDAEstimatesAdj.$0.64EPS $2,517.6Revenue JEF Adj.Prior$1,175.2EBITDAEstimates Adj.$0.68EPS $2,501.0RevenueConsensusAdj.$1,166.0EBITDAEstimates Adj.$0.66EPS Revenue(0.2%) JEFAdj.vs.(0.0%)ConsensusEBITDA Adj.(2.8%)EPS

this vertical until jackpots more consistently approach the $1B threshold or payout dynamics are

. 2027EBRSL $2,584.9RevenueJEF RevisedAdj.$1,189.0EBITDAEstimatesAdj.$0.68EPS $2,613.0Revenue JEF Adj.Prior$1,202.5EBITDAEstimates Adj.$0.80EPS $2,580.1RevenueConsensusAdj.$1,215.5EBITDAEstimates Adj.$0.82EPS Revenue0.2% JEFAdj.vs.(2.2%)ConsensusEBITDA Adj.(17.9%)EPS

adjusted; we model U.S. multi-state jackpots SSS (1.0%) YoY in 2Q. Source: FactSet, Jefferies estimates

Contract pipeline and competitive intensity. Domestically, the key contract we are monitoring is

NY, which we expect to be awarded in 4Q for a September 2028 start, while the TX technology

provider contract expires in August 2028. We believe BRSL is favorably positioned in both markets