LLY: 2Q26 Preview: Strong Obesity Performance Outweighs Older Product Pressures; Increasing PT to $1,500

研报英文原文证据摘录

LLY: 2Q26 Preview: Strong Obesity Performance Outweighs Older Product Pressures; Increasing PT to $1,500

Eli Lilly and Company

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

We have an Outperform rating on Eli Lilly driven by obesityEli Lilly and Company

franchise dominance through 2030. Street sentiment is largely

1,800 125 Weeks 15FEB24 - 07JUL26 positive but there remains some nervousness on elevated

1,600 expectations, Medicare pricing headwinds, and positioning

TARGETTARGET 1500.001500.00 1,400 risks as LLY now exceeds $1trn market-cap. However, we

1,200 CURRENTCURRENT 1235.561235.56 believe consensus materially undervalues transformative

1,000 potential catalysts on the horizon that could crystallize

800 value, including the Medicare agreement, Foundayo's ex-US

600 potential driving $35bn+ peak sales, and multiple pipeline

400 catalysts. LLY's structural advantages, patent exclusivity

60m through 2035+, manufacturing lead, and 14% revenue CAGR

40m

20m toward $130bn by 2033E warrant multiple expansion, in our

2024 2025 2026 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J view, as fundamentals override positioning concerns.

LLY US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target Risks to rating and price target

Valuation Downside risks to Outperform rating include: (1) GLP-1

Our 12-month Price Target of $1,500 is based on a 30x multiple market slowdown or competition stunts growth, (2) Surprise

on our forward fully diluted operating EPS forecast. We believe negative pipeline trial results, (3) Increasing pricing pressures

the multiple is appropriate due to our continued expectations from payors/regulators, (4) Margin compression from product

for outperformance of the incretin franchise.