VG: 2Q Cargoes Generally In-Line with Guidance and RBC Estimate

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VG: 2Q Cargoes Generally In-Line with Guidance and RBC Estimate

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Elvira Scotto, CFA (Analyst)

Chris Goehring (AVP)

July 8, 2026

Venture Global Inc

2Q Cargoes Generally In-Line with Guidance and RBC Estimate

NYSE: VG | USD 12.38 | Outperform | Price Target USD 16.00

Sentiment: Positive

Bottom Line: VG released an 8-K announcing 2Q26 exported cargoes and total realized weighted average liquefaction fee from its

Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities. We provide a summary below, compared to prior guidance and our estimates. Overall,

exported cargoes are generally in line with guidance for 2Q26 and one cargo above our estimate. We believe there is some upside

to our estimate given the higher realized total fixed liquefaction vs. our estimate. VG will announce its full financial performance

at a later date, where we expect to hear updates on the broader macro environment, contracted cargoes, margin capture and how

much capacity remains uncontracted for the balance of the year.

Total cargoes: In 2Q26, VG exported a total of 127 cargoes (sold and recognized in revenue volumes of 466.4 TBtu), which is in line

with previous total 2Q26 guidance of 122-130 cargoes and our estimate of 126 cargoes. VG realized a total weighted average fixed

liquefaction fee of $6.45/MMbtu, compared to our estimate of $5.82/MMbtu. We think there could be upside to our $2,334MM

Adj. EBITDA estimate (slightly below current FactSet consensus of $2,452MM) for 2Q26 given the one extra cargo and slightly

higher weighted average liquefaction fee.

Calcasieu Pass: In 2Q26, VG exported 37 cargoes (sold volumes of 137.5 TBtu) compared to prior 2Q guidance of 36-38 cargoes and

our current 2Q26 estimate of 37 cargoes (~137 TBtu).