Q2 Production Slightly Below Forecast; Higher Grades Expected in H2

研报英文原文证据摘录

Q2 Production Slightly Below Forecast; Higher Grades Expected in H2

495koz estimate and gold coming in slightly Silver Eq. Prd 5,162 10,143 14,008↑ 18,036↑

below our 8.4koz. The difference vs. our estimates was primarily driven by grade, with AISC AgEq ($/ $31.00 $38.90 $40.40↑ $27.10↓

silver grade of 126g/t slightly above our forecast, and gold at 1.87g/t slightly below. oz)

Silver recovery improved q/q to 85.4%, while gold recovery remained roughly flat

Valuation

at 72.6%. Recoveries are expected to improve as grade increases in H2; we expect

Terronera's production to increase through H2 as EDR mines higher-grade zones. 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

P/E NA NA 14.1x 6.9xKolpa performing well following expansion. Kolpa produced 1,184koz AgEq in Q2,

slighly ahead of our 1,164koz estimate. Production consisted of 633koz Ag, 6.2kt Pb, P/CFPS NA 40.9x 11.8x 5.1x

4.0kt Zn, and 127t Cu. Throughput of 233kt exceeded our 216kt estimate and recent EV/EBITDA NM NM 6.5x 3.3x

quarters in the 170-200kt range, as the expansion to 2,500tpd took hold. Grades were Consensus Estimates

below our forecast due to the use of lower-grade open pit ore.

2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

H1 production of 3.80Moz Ag and 21.7koz Au represents 44% and 46% of QTR. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

production guidance midpoints of 8.6Moz and 47koz, respectively. Terronera's

2024A $(0.00) $(0.00) $0.01 $0.02

2.59Moz AgEq represents 45% of full-year guidance, Guanacevi's 2.0Moz is 42% of

guidance and Kolpa's 2.14Moz is 46%. We forecast stronger production in H2 driven by 2025A $(0.00) $(0.03) $(0.01) $0.01

higher grades, particularly at Terronera. Overall, we forecast 8.57Moz Ag and 46.2koz Au 2026E $0.21a $0.09 $0.16 $0.19

in 2026. 2027E $0.30 $0.31 $0.38 $0.36

Key Changes

NAVIn USD$

Estimates Q2 / 26E 2026E 2027E