Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro: Private Credit: Pressures Contained, Not Resolved

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Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro: Private Credit: Pressures Contained, Not Resolved

Global Idea

July 12, 2026 06:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro Vishwanath Tirupattur

Strategist

Private Credit: Pressures Vishwanath.Tirupattur@morganstanley.comVishwas Patkar +1 212 761-1043

Vishwas.Patkar@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8041

Contained, Not Resolved

Private Credit Pressures Subside but Persist

When we last addressed private credit in the Sunday Start, the noise was loud:

redemption requests across private BDCs and semi-liquid private credit funds were

rising; public BDCs (the market’s visible proxy) were trading at meaningful discounts

to NAV; and software exposure facing potential AI-driven disruption had emerged as

a clear fault line. We argued that credit risks in private credit were significant but

not systemic, framing the volatility earlier this year as a reset in pricing and

sentiment rather than the beginning of a disorderly credit unwind with broad

systemic consequences. As we enter Q2 earnings, the decibel level has eased, but

the chatter has not disappeared. In this week’s Start, we reassess the landscape to

see what has changed and what has not, mark our thesis to market, and consider

how AI-driven disruption may continue to shape outcomes within private credit,

particularly in the software sector.

Several dynamics have evolved, though our broader framework remains intact.

Pressure on public BDC NAVs has eased modestly, reflecting an improving valuation

environment, while BDC debt spreads have tightened and broadly retraced prior

widening. The Morgan Stanley index of liquid IG public BDC debt (MSBDPBDC),

which had widened to ~280 bps at the peak of market anxiety in late March, has