Jun/26 Sales Analysis; Web Traffic and U.S. Sales Data Remain Strong

研报英文原文证据摘录

Jun/26 Sales Analysis; Web Traffic and U.S. Sales Data Remain Strong

Aritzia - Block Summary Model

Income Statement 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E

Total Canada Stores 67 68 69 69

Total U.S Stores 63 76 88 100 Valuation

Total Stores 130 144 157 169 We value ATZ using a 19.5x F2028E EV/EBITDA multiple. Our

target multiple is above ATZ's historical NTM EV/EBITDA Total Revenues 2,738,112 3,702,148 4,578,344 5,447,360

average and the apparel peer average. Our valuation

Comparable Sales Growth (%) 11.3% 26.6% 16.5% 8.5% multiple reflects an expectation for near-term tariff-driven

Gross Profit 1,180,619 1,661,333 2,133,668 2,592,786 headwinds balanced with ongoing margin expansion and

long-term U.S. growth opportunities.

Gross Margin (%) 43.1% 44.9% 46.6% 47.6%

SG&A (incl. D&A) 837,456 1,075,570 1,327,268 1,584,653 Upside Scenario $222.00

Our upside scenario could lead to F2028E EBITDA growth of SG&A (incl. D&A) % of Sales 30.6% 29.1% 29.0% 29.1%

31% and a target multiple of 22.0x 2028E EV/EBITDA. This

Adjusted EBITDA 406,344 646,202 871,400 1,075,333 scenario assumes that brand awareness expands further

than expected in the U.S., SSSG accelerates from current Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) 14.8% 17.5% 19.0% 19.7%

expectations, and EBITDA margins expand relative to our

Adjusted Net Income 230,549 388,587 535,122 675,724 base case.

Adj. FD EPS $1.98 $3.25 $4.45 $5.62

Downside Scenario $132.00

WA FD Shares O/S (000s) 116,731 119,499 120,171 120,171

Our downside scenario could lead to 2027E EBITDA growth

Cash Flow Statement 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E of 12% and a target multiple of 14.5x 2028E EV/EBITDA. This

scenario assumes that brand awareness idles in the U.S., Cash Flow From Operations 451,464 634,095 789,122 954,724

SSSG decelerates from current expectations, and EBITDA