2Q26: Expecting In-Line Operational Update, Increased Buyback Pace

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2Q26: Expecting In-Line Operational Update, Increased Buyback Pace

July 8, 2026 | 14:48 ET~

Expand Energy Corporation

EXE-NSDQ Rating Price: Jul-7 Target Total Rtn US E&P

Outperform $89.56 $110.00 25%

Phillip Jungwirth, CFA Analyst

phillip.jungwirth@bmo.com (303) 436-1127

Jack Kindregan, CFA VP Associate

2Q26: Expecting In-Line Operational Update, Jack.Kindregan@bmo.com (303) 436-1115

Ajay Bakshani, CFA Senior AssociateIncreased Buyback Pace

ajay.bakshani@bmo.com (332) 268-6994

Bottom Line: Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Corp.

We expect an in-line 2Q update from Expand, but with buyback pace increasing

2YR Price Volume Chart

given low leverage and inexpensive valuation. We see the full-year outlook being 130

maintained, delivering 2H growth and continued FCF supporting 3Q share repurchases. 120

Expand’s first Western Haynesville (Bobby Yancey) well averaged ~20MMcf/d over 100110

the first two months based on state data, although rate is likely restricted. We expect 90 6050

discussion to be kept high-level but will look for initial thoughts around cost and early 80 4030

production history. 70 2010

60 0

Jan Jul Jan Jul

Key Points LHS: Price ($) / RHS: Volume (mm) Source: FactSet

Company Data in $

Our 2Q26 EPS estimate is little changed following a MTM and catch-up with the

Dividend $2.30 Shares O/S (mm) 239.2company. We estimate 2Q EPS of $1.01, versus $1.03 previously, while consensus is

$1.10. We forecast $1,127mm EBITDA, while Street is $1,162mm. CFO is expected to Yield 2.6% Market Cap (mm) $21,425

be $1,075mm, driving $250mm pre-dividend FCF. We assume capex of $825mm with EV (mm) $24,338 Net Debt (mm) $2,788

guidance of $770-845mm, while Expand included additional leasing efforts in the BMO Estimates in $

budget, and we’ll look for any commentary here.