Taking the Pulse; Initiating at OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Taking the Pulse; Initiating at OW

July 8, 2026

Investment Thesis (1/3): Mispriced Ph3 success odds in PDAC

We are constructive on IMRX shares based on attractive risk/reward (+360% vs. -40% up/down): 1) our proprietary survival modeling

suggests a higher probability of success(~60%) of the Ph3 MAPKeeper301 trial vs. 20-30% PoS implied by the stock price; and 2)

physician check suggests an orthogonal mechanism and superior tolerability of atebi vs. the pan-RAS class can carve out meaningful

market share. We believe patience would pay off for the topline readout in mid-2028.

• The main bear arguments against Immuneering are: 1) low odds of Ph3 PoS, and 2) perception of a We believe the market misprices the

less-competitive profile than the panRAS/KRAS class in PDAC. Despite a compelling mOS of 17.3

probability of success of the Ph3 trial in mos from the Ph2 trial of atebi + mGnP, skepticism persists due to the single-arm nature and

1L PDAC modest monotherapy activity of atebi. As such, we believe the modest EV of ~$130M reflects low

investor expectations of the program.

• Our literature review and survival modeling support a 60% likelihood of Ph3 success:

 Atebi differs from conventional MEK inhibitors, which failed in previous PDAC trials. DCI shifts

the short-term tumor shrinkage for long-term tumor control and lowers resistance in the

MAPK pathway. Combination with chemo creates synergy for shutting down alternative

pathways.

 We ran simulations on the variability of the Ph2 mOS Kaplan-Meier curve to predict the

likelihood of survival degradation in Ph3. Our model estimates odds of 63%, 43%, and 25% for

three dilution scenarios: 10+%, 20+%, and 30+% mOS dilution versus Ph2.

 Our sensitivity analysis of 10-30+% dilution of the mOS benefit estimates a 51-81%