Longer ABF Upcycle Supports Higher Margins

研报英文原文证据摘录

Longer ABF Upcycle Supports Higher Margins

Macquarie Equity Research

10 July 2026

Technology

Technology Hardware & Equipment

Unimicron Technology Taiwan

Kaylin Leo

Key Points Tsai Tsai

• We expect ABF undersupply in 2H26–29 to support continued price 3037 TT Outperform

increases and margin expansion. Price (at 10 Jul 2026) TWD875.00

• Unimicron looks well positioned to benefit from stronger CPU demand, 12-month target TWD1,400.00 12-month TSR (%) 61.0

EMIB-T adoption, and growth in Nvidia and ASIC-related demand. Volatility Index Very High

• We believe stock underperformance vs peers YTD and over past month Market Cap (Local) (m) 1,390,264

provides a more favourable entry point into the industry upcycle. Market Cap (USD) (m) 43,169

Free Float (%) 85

30-day avg turnover (USD) (m) 826.4

• Longer industry upcycle: We expect the ABF market to be Investment Fundamentals undersupplied in 2H26-2029, with the supply-demand gap widening in

Year end 31 Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

2026-28. In addition to GPU/ASIC growth, we expect increased demand Revenue (bn) 131.2 186.5 294.3 417.7

as the CPU-to-GPU ratio shifts from 1:2–1:4 to 1:1 and substrate area Revenue growth (%) 13.8 42.1 57.9 41.9

requirements expand with EMIB-T and CPO adoption. We expect limited EBIT (bn) 6.7 27.0 67.1 109.3

supply additions before mid-2028, likely increasing market tightness and EBIT growth (%) 30.4 303.8 148.9 62.9

Reported profit (bn) 6.7 25.9 54.5 88.7

supporting further price increases. Adjusted profit (bn) 6.7 25.9 54.5 88.7

• Beneficiary of stronger CPU demand, EMIB-T adoption: The company EPS rep [TWD] 4.4 16.6 34.3 55.9

EPS rep growth (%) 31.4 280.7 106.9 62.8

is the primary supplier of Nvidia CPUs, and we believe it will benefit Net debt/equity (%) (18.7) (10.8) (13.7) (25.5)