Thailand non-bank financials

研报英文原文证据摘录

Thailand non-bank financials

Macquarie Equity Research

10 July 2026

Financial Services

ASEANThailand non-bank financials

Macro tailwinds drive tactical rebound

Key Points ChattraChaipunviriyaporn

• Easing inflation and co-payment scheme should lift household

repayment capacity, while lagging share prices create scope for

rerating. Recommendations and target prices

• We upgrade MTC and SAWAD to OP. We prefer KTC and TIDLOR as core Rec Close(Bt)price (Bt)TP TSR(%)

fundamental picks and SAWAD as a tactical recovery play. Title lenders

MTC UP -> OP 32.5 25 -> 40 24%• We expect 2Q26E sector profit of Bt7.0bn (+15% YoY, +1% QoQ) driven

by loan growth, stable credit and better NIMs. SAWAD UP -> OP 24.1 18 -> 28 19%

TIDLOR OP 19.1 19 -> 24 34%

Unsecured lenders

• Macro backdrop turning more supportive. We see an attractive tactical AEONTSKTC OPUP 10537 39 70-> 45 -28%27%

trading opportunity in Thai NBFCs into 3Q26. Easing cost-push inflation, AMC

improving agricultural income and the government's co-payment scheme JMT UP 11.9 6 -44%

(June–September) should support household repayment capacity and Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2026;

contain new NPL formation. Despite improving fundamentals, NBFC prices as of 9 July 2026

share prices have lagged the broader market recovery, particularly among

Title lenders' price performance title lenders, creating scope for a valuation re-rating as concerns over

credit costs and asset quality continue to fade. Non Bank performance vs SET and

• El Nino risk appears manageable. NOAA data indicate that El Nino 170 SETBANK (Indexed = 100)

conditions formed in June 2026 and will strengthen into a strong phase

by November 2026–January 2027, posing some risk to in-season rice

cultivation in 4Q26.