T: Share Gains from Cable, Share Losses to Satellite—Initiate at Underweight

研报英文原文证据摘录

T: Share Gains from Cable, Share Losses to Satellite—Initiate at Underweight

Wireless Carriers Equity Research

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

AT&T Inc. (T)

Investment Thesis

Outside of T's fiber footprint, we think competition will be fierce, and with weaker market share footholds excl. the wireline footprint we

think T's wireless net adds are the most at-risk in Telco. We view T as least likely to strike a Starlink Mobile MVNO, which means fiber/

convergence would need to outperform to deliver account net add & services revenue upside. We rate T Underweight.

Target Price Valuation for T

• On a standalone basis (no MVNO), we value T at ~$16/sh, applying a ~6.2x EV/EBITDA multiple to blended CY’27/’28E Adj. EBITDA of ~

$50bn.

• If T does an MVNO with Starlink, we believe that implies ~$27/sh based on modest EBITDA upside and uplift to the EV/EBITDA

multiple.

• Considering both outcomes and applying a 20% probability to the 'Yes MVNO' scenario results in a blended price target of $18/sh.

Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for T

• Postpaid account net adds and FWA subscriber growth outperform our expectations, reducing the impact of satellite competition and

driving upside to EBITDA and valuation.

• Fiber penetration and convergence trends exceed our expectations, improving customer retention, ARPU and long-term growth

outlook. This is an upside risk.

Companies Mentioned in Report

Company Name Ticker Last Price

(07/07/26)

AMC Networks Inc. AMCX $9.99

AT&T Inc. T $21.09

Cable One, Inc. CABO $42.63

Charter Communications, Inc. CHTR $138.02

Cinemark Holdings, Inc. CNK $29.42

Comcast Corporation CMCSA $23.41

Fox Corporation FOXA $54.92

Gray Television, Inc. GTN $3.90

IMAX Corporation IMAX $37.48

Lamar Advertising Company LAMR $160.08

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.