Ipsen SA "Q2'26 Results Preview" (Neutral) Deng

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ipsen SA "Q2'26 Results Preview" (Neutral) Deng

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Our full year forecast could be conservative as we assumed a sequential EUR30m From To % ch Cons.

erosion in Q3 and Q4 this year given potential generic entry, in line with Ipsen 12/26E 14.39 14.41 0 13.15

guidance. The main generic competitor Amneal (covered by Ash Verma) is guiding 12/27E 15.06 14.73 -2 13.36

for Q3'26 for its Somatuline generic entry. 12/28E 14.97 14.31 -4 13.39

Iqirvo: We forecast EUR93m Iqirvo sales for Q2'26, broadly in line with VA cons at Xian Deng, PhD, CFA

EUR95m. This is based on continued TRx growth trend that we observe in Q2. Analyst

According to IQVIA, Iqirvo generated ~9k prescriptions in the US (Figure 5IqirvoTRxtrendssincelaunch). xian.deng@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 6285

Assuming $11.5k cost per month, these led to ~$105m Iqirvo sales in Q2. For

FY26, we forecast EUR395m sales, 3% above VA cons. This implies ~EUR12m Matthew Weston, PhD

sequential growth each quarter. Analyst

matthew.weston@ubs.com

Onivyde: We cut our Onivyde forecasts by 16% for FY26, 32% for 2027 and ca +44-20-7567 4055

50% afterwards. This is reflecting the likely future competition from daraxonrasib Colin White, PhD

from RVMD (covered by Mike Yee) following very strong full 2L+ PDAC data at Analyst

ASCO earlier this year. We think Onivyde will likely be limited to much later lines colin.white@ubs.com

following daraxonrasib data. Having said that, as Onivyde is ~5% of Ipsen's total +44-20-7567 8657

revenue, our forecast change on Onivyde led to low single digit % negative impact

on the group top line.

Thoughts on FY26 guidance: We forecast EUR4.27bn FY26 total sales, 6%

above VA cons at EUR4.04bn, driven by our higher numbers in Somatuline,

Dysport and Iqirvo. This represents 16.3% total sales growth CER for the FY, vs