Argentine Banks "Navigating the Roller Coaster; Gradual Recovery" Prato

研报英文原文证据摘录

Argentine Banks "Navigating the Roller Coaster; Gradual Recovery" Prato

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

Argentine Banks Equities

AmericasNavigating the Roller Coaster; Gradual

Recovery Banks

Kaio Prato

Analyst

kaio.prato@ubs.com

Updated estimates ahead of 2Q; recent outperformance driven by macro +55-11-3513 6573

We update our estimates for Argentine banks following 1Q26 results, leading to a Thiago Batista, CFA

+2% revision in our adj. earnings for 26-28E, on average. YTD, banks are down by ~ Analyst

-1%, however, they presented a ~30% rally from May trough to significantly outpace thiago.batista@ubs.com

both Merval (+15% during the period and +5%YTD) and Bz Banks (-5% and -5%YTD), +55-11-3513 6518

reflecting better economic mood and expectations of asset quality inflection with Camila Azevedo

potential credit acceleration ahead. The move has been supported by a more Associate Analyst

constructive macro backdrop - slowing inflation, stronger reserve accumulation, camila.azevedo@ubs.com

IMF support, S&P/Fitch upgrades, and progress on debt payments - all resulting in +55-11-2767 6881

lower country risk. We currently prefer Macro (Buy) and Galicia (Neutral) over BBAR Bruno Kenji

and SUPV (both Neutrals) - see more here. We see Argentine banks trading at ~1.4x Associate Analyst

PBV cons. 12m Fwd in 26E or 1.3x adj. PBV 26E, which is ~20% discount to other bruno.kenji@ubs.com

LatAm peers (vs. +10% since 2025). +55-11-2767 6056

Macro backdrop: reforms, inflation and funding normalization support the setup

Macro momentum has improved since the beginning of the year, starting with

progress on structural reforms, including labor reform, alongside fiscal discipline

and measures to support investment. Recent data reinforced the positive direction: