LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor "The Navigator - Gov't measures on subsidies in..."

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LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor "The Navigator - Gov't measures on subsidies in..."

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor Equities

Latin AmericaThe Navigator - Gov't measures on subsidies in

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Tasso Vasconcellos

Analyst

tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com

See this week’s key highlights across our coverage: +55-11-2767 6683

Brazil O&G - 1) Fuel subsidies phase-out: Key Implications for Petrobras, Joao Barichello

Vibra and Ultrapar: Assuming no price adjustments, we view the removal of Associate Analyst

diesel subsidy as negative for Petrobras' fuel realization revenue, while it joao-pedro.barichello@ubs.com

should have no major impact on prices for distributors/pump. For gasoline, as +55-11-2767 6364

subsidy is linked with a discount for distributors, we see a net neutral impact

for Petrobras, but negative for distributors as it would increase their

acquisition cost and may pressure margins. 2) Brazil extends 12% oil export

tax for up to 60 days: We believe the extension was negatively received by

independent players particularly amid a lower Brent scenario. We view PRIO,

PBR and BRAV as the most exposed companies given their export profile.

Petrobras -1) Petrobras-Pemex: A Deep Dive into Mexican O&G industry: In

our deep dive, we noted a market strongly concentrated on Pemex (95% of oil

production), with deepwaters as one of the main unexplored frontiers for the

country, though still lacking required infrastructure, which may pressure

projects returns. 2) Bolivia and Petrobras discuss energy cooperation: We

view this potential cooperation as at very early stages with strong

uncertainties remaining. As we flagged on Mexico, we believe investors may

view geographic dispersion across multiple countries with concerns.