AMT Upgrade to Outperform ($188 PT, ~16% Total Return) - Discount to REITs Prices in Large Risks

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AMT Upgrade to Outperform ($188 PT, ~16% Total Return) - Discount to REITs Prices in Large Risks

July 8, 2026

Investment Conclusion

●With this report, we upgrade American Tower Corporation (AMT) to Outperform from Peer Perform. Our

$188 year-end 2027 price target implies a ~16% total return. We think the painful migration to three carriers

in the U.S. is in the rear view mirror, which should allow for more predictable topline growth. Meanwhile,

valuation appears particularly attractive relative to other U.S. large cap REITs. Our $188 price target assumes

16.2x our 2027 AFFOPS estimate, a 20% discount to our coverage average, which is greater than 10 year

historical average (5% discount). This discount reflects ongoing Starlink uncertainty and refinancing headwinds

discussed below, partially offset by Coresite's above-average growth contribution. The ratings change will add

one Outperform to cell towers (previously zero), as the sector's valuation has become too discounted to REITs

to ignore.

●Fundamentals - DISH Churn Is the 2026 Story and Growth Reaccelerates From Here.

○Domestic: The dramatic end of DISH payments (see here) led to considerable negative estimate revisions

(Exhibit 14 here). However, the U.S. is now a three carrier market, ending lost rent from DISH, but also

years of churn tied to the Sprint-T Mobile merger. Finally, there is potential for DISH recovery, although it

may be limited to the standalone fund ordered by the FCC (see here). Ironically, if not for constant Starlink

newsflow (which we will discuss further below), we could be in front of a very constructive period for

tower cashflow growth given the recent rationalization of carriers.

○International: LATAM churn is also on a recovery trajectory. We forecast international churn falls over