Canada Watch: Jobs get a modest World Cup assist

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Canada Watch: Jobs get a modest World Cup assist

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Canada Watch

Jobs get a modest World Cup assist

Key takeaways 10 July 2026

Macro• June jobs grew by +18.2k, led by part-time hiring, narrowing 2026 net losses to -6.3k.

Canada U-rate fell to 6.5% from 6.6%.

• The economy remains weak despite recent better labor reports, likely related to the

World Cup; we still see the BoC on hold.

• CAD: CAD rates curve bear flattened. Market marginally priced out July cut. FX: We Economics

Carlos Capistran

continue to expect modest CAD downside. LatAm and Canada Economist

BofAS

carlos.capistran@bofa.com

Rates StrategyJob market continues to recover in June

Ralph Axel

Following May’s upside surprise, Canada added +18.2k jobs in June (consensus: 10.0k; Rates Strategist

BofA: 5.9k), the third net gain of the year and reducing cumulative 2026 job losses to - BofAS ralph.axel@bofa.com

6.3k (Exhibit 1). The increase was driven almost entirely by part-time employment, which

Katie Craig

rose +17.5k, while full-time employment was broadly flat at +0.6k (Exhibit 2). By worker Rates Strategist

class, gains were concentrated in the private sector (+31.6k, after +56.3k in May) and BofASkatie.craig@bofa.com

among the self-employed (+17.0k), partly offset by a decline in public-sector FX Strategy

employment (-30.5k). The employment rate rose 0.1pp to 60.8% (Exhibit 3). John Shin

FX Strategist

Services underpin job growth BofASjoong.s.shin@bofa.com

Job creation was driven by services (+61.8k), while goods-producing industries shed jobs Canada Economics

(-43.7k). Gains were led by trade (+16.4k), accommodation and food services (+14.7k), BofAS

and recreation (+9.3k) (Exhibit 5). In contrast, most goods industries contracted, led by Global Economics Team BofAS

manufacturing (-16.8k).