Automotive Industry: Weekly Automotive Pit Stop: USMCA negotiations likely drag, RIVN capital raise

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Automotive Industry: Weekly Automotive Pit Stop: USMCA negotiations likely drag, RIVN capital raise

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Automotive Industry

Weekly Automotive Pit Stop: USMCA

negotiations likely drag, RIVN capital raise

Estimate Change

Expert Call: USMCA negotiations could drag into 2027 10 July 2026

We co-hosted an expert call with Justin McCarthy, a DGA Group partner and former Bush Equity

administration trade official, to discuss the USMCA review and potential implications for Global

autos. The U.S. decision not to simply renew the existing framework for another 16 Autos/Car Manufacturers

years shifts the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) into rolling annual Alexander Perry

reviews and effectively opens the door to a renegotiation of select provisions, with Research Analyst

autos, steel, and aluminum likely at the center. McCarthy does not expect a quick BofAS+1 646 855 1365

resolution and said he would be surprised if a deal were completed before this time next aperry3@bofa.com

year, particularly given the range of issues to resolve across Mexico, Canada, and the Jack Joyce, CFA

Research Analyst

U.S. The administration’s two core objectives appear to be increasing U.S. BofAS

manufacturing and reducing Chinese vehicle/component exposure through Mexico and +1 646 556 2798

jack.joyce@bofa.com

Canada. Potential policy levers include higher regional value content, a possible U.S.-

specific content requirement, tighter steel/aluminum sourcing rules, stricter

transshipment rules, and changes to “roll-up” provisions, which could effectively raise

North American content requirements even if the headline regional value content

Stock symbol keythreshold is unchanged. McCarthy also framed China-related overcapacity as a broader Adient Plc ADNT