Global Metals & Mining: Mini Primer: Commodity equity correlations, 3rd edition

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Global Metals & Mining: Mini Primer: Commodity equity correlations, 3rd edition

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Global Metals & Mining

Mini Primer: Commodity equity

correlations, 3rd edition

Industry Overview

Mini primer: Commodity equity correlations 10 July 2026

We refresh a simple (but fun!) analysis looking at correlations of various Global Metals & Equity

Mining equities to their main underlying commodities. We examine various “pure plays” Global

including copper, aluminium, iron ore, coal and more. We also look at diversified miners Non-Ferrous Metals, Mining &

Mineralsboth vs. their main commodities but also vs. derived “revenue basket”. Some

interesting takeaways: 1) Short term correlations with key commodities usually seem Fundamental Equity Research

to hold but there can be longer term differences in performance as companies execute Jason Fairclough >>

Research Analyst

on strategies e.g. growth or M&A (or not!). 2) Revenue basket = opportunity indicator. MLI (UK)

+44 20 7995 0225

Copper: FCX, ANTO, SCCO, LUN, IVN = High correlation jason.fairclough@bofa.com

Matty Zhao >>

The copper price has nearly tripled since its 2020 lows and the metal is at the epicentre Research Analyst

of the energy transition, which means that the lack of mine supply growth is being felt Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

matty.zhao@bofa.com

acutely. Indeed, tight concentrates availability is increasingly capping production at

Lawson Winder, CFA >>

China's smelters and refiners, potentially pushing consumers of refined metal back into Research Analyst

international markets. We see high correlation of copper prices with key copper Merrill Lynch (Canada) lawson.winder@bofa.com

equities: FCX, ANTO, SCCO, LUN, IVN, KGHM and Chinese pure play Zijin.

Caio Ribeiro >>