French Banks: 2Q26 preview: Retail firing again, CIB holding strong; strategy take centre stage

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French Banks: 2Q26 preview: Retail firing again, CIB holding strong; strategy take centre stage

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French Banks

2Q26 preview: Retail firing again, CIB

holding strong; strategy take centre stage

Price Objective Change

Fast improving operating leverage in retail; Solid CIB plays 10 July 2026

Results season begins on 23 July with BNPP (SocGen, CAsa on 30, 31 July). We expect a Equity

stronger YoY earnings performance overall, with double-digit EPS growth supported by: France

(1) solid revenue expansion (>5% YoY) driven by the rebound in eurozone retail (primarily Banks

France and Belgium), resilient International Retail, and buoyant Global Markets activity

(>5% YoY); (2) disciplined cost management, with >3% positive operating jaws; and (3) TarikResearchEl MejjadAnalyst >>

benign asset quality with CoR ≤ TTC despite additional management overlays. Capital MLI (UK)

generation should remain healthy. Focus will be on the sustainability of the profitability +44tarik.el_mejjad@bofa.com20 7996 0014

improvement trajectory amid the currently uncertain macro and geopolitical backdrop. Lea George >>

SocGen: €1.5bn special share buyback; Focus on CMD ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

SocGen is our top pick in France and one of our “25 stocks for 2026”. It should deliver +44lea.george@bofa.com20 7996 2798

strong 2Q26 results, confirming the profitability inflection in French retail despite higher

ECB rates (NII: margins/volumes, cost savings) and auto leasing (net margins, cost

synergies), while CIB should remain robust thanks to its leading Equity Derivatives

Exhibit 1: 2Q26E estimates (€mn)franchise. Profitability in international retail (Czech Republic, Romania) should stay

BNPP reports 23 July, SocGen on 30 July and

resilient.