Semis-on-Fire 10 July 2026: Channel Checks – Positive Trends, but Mid/Late Cycle

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Semis-on-Fire 10 July 2026: Channel Checks – Positive Trends, but Mid/Late Cycle

Technology | Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment

July 10, 2026

Mark Lipacis Semis-on-Fire 10 July 2026: Channel

214-459-4007

Mark.Lipacis@evercoreisi.com Checks – Positive Trends, but Mid/Late

Vedvati Shrotre, CFA Cycle Signals

415-800-0187 In our Semis-on-Fire Weekly, we strive to highlight differentiated insights

Vedvati.Shrotre@evercoreisi.com

and distill them into a short video format. This week, we review key

Affan Ahmed takeaways from 80 channel checks conducted by a supply chain expert and

212-653-9072 highlight signals of middle innings in analog/AI. Video Link here.

Affan.Ahmed@evercoreisi.com

80 Supply Channel Checks - Positive Business Trends. Checks point to

positive business trends: (1) Sequential momentum remains robust, with

Links to Related Research 2Q revenues improving QQ and backlog supporting 3Q growth. (2) Price

hikes are broadening, with 30 chip companies raising prices broadly vs. 16

surgically last quarter. (3) Allocation is increasing and deliveries are

worsening, as lead times continue to stretch. (4) End-market strength is

broadening, led by AI, drones, A&D, robotics, power, and industrial, while

autos and PC/consumer remain softer. (5) TXN, IFX, ON, AMD and NXPI

noted consistently as executing well in the channel

80 Supply Channel Checks - Mid/Late Cycle Signals. Checks also

flagged emerging mid/late-cycle signals: (1) Potential DRAM inventory

build, with some brokers selling DRAM at discounts to franchise distributors.

(2) Early signs of double ordering, as some OEMs place orders with both

distributors and brokers for the same programs amid tight supply. (3)

Military demand remains very strong, with the channel obligated to prioritize