Comet Holding AG: NAND greenfield has arrived; Double-upgrade to Buy

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Comet Holding AG: NAND greenfield has arrived; Double-upgrade to Buy

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Comet Holding AG

NAND greenfield has arrived; Double-

upgrade to Buy

Rating Change: BUY | PO: 518.00 CHF | Price: 349.00 CHF

Double-upgrade to Buy w/ CHF 518 PO; 70% EBITDA CAGR 09 July 2026

We upgrade Comet from Underperform to Buy. NAND greenfield activity is finally picking Equity

up, with visibility increasing to next year and beyond, and Comet stands out as a NAND

play with an attractive valuation, high operating leverage, and ample capacity. We raise our

Key ChangesFY26-28E revenue estimates by 7-18%, led by the PCT division, and raise margin

assumptions, resulting in 13-57% increase to EBITDA. Our new FY26/27/28E EBITDA (CHF) Previous Current

estimates are 5%/10%/20% above css. Our new PO is CHF 518 (from CHF 286), based on Inv. Opinion C-3-7 C-1-7

18x FY28E EV/EBITDA (prev. 20x FY27E EV/EBITDA; within 8-31x historical range). Inv. Rating UNDERPERFORM BUY

NAND activity has increased with new fabs in 2028+ Price2026EObj.Rev (m) 286.00523.8 518.00560.4

Comet is disproportionately exposed to NAND due to its matchboxes and vacuum 2027E Rev (m) 620.9 703.1

capacitors being used more in etching machines (Lam Research is its largest customer 2028E Rev (m) 721.7 851.9

at 40%+ of revenue). After a dearth of new NAND wafer capacity during 2024/25 with a 2026E EPS 5.93 7.47

focus on NAND upgrades instead, there has finally been a noticeable pickup in NAND 2027E EPS 9.25 13.67

greenfield activity on AI-driven demand. Besides near-term additions (KIOXIA/Sandisk 2028E EPS 12.69 20.66

Kitakami, YMTC Wuhan Phase 3), new NAND fabs have been announced for 2028+

production (Micron Singapore, Samsung P5, and Cheongju M17), which should translate Oliver Wong >>