Malaysia Watch: BNM review: Near-term policy outlook remains steady

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Malaysia Watch: BNM review: Near-term policy outlook remains steady

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Malaysia Watch

BNM review: Near-term policy outlook

remains steady

No signals of imminent policy rate hike… 09 July 2026

BNM kept policy rate unchanged at 2.75% as widely expected. Compared to the May GEM Economics

meeting (see report), BNM sounded more confident on growth outlook, and slightly more Asia | Malaysia

cautious on inflation risks. However, overall policy tone does not appear too far off from

Kai Wei Ang

the previous meeting, with policy stance still characterized as “appropriate and ASEAN Economist

consistent with the outlook”. Merrill Lynch (Singapore) +65 6678 5518

kaiwei.ang@bofa.com

…but we continue to monitor risk of a hike in Jan ‘27 Rahul Bajoria

Our base case remains for BNM to maintain status quo for some time. That said, we India & ASEAN Economist

BofAS India

remain alert to the risk of a rate hike in Jan 2027 (and signaling in Nov 2026), which

would effectively reverse the 25bp insurance cut delivered in Jul 2025. Key signposts we

are monitoring include a more meaningful easing in external uncertainties, and/or Glossary

heightened concerns over inflation dynamics, particularly (i) inflation pervasiveness

(i.e. breadth and co-movement of price increases, and (ii) inflation persistence (i.e. BNM: Bank Negara Malaysia

pace and durability of price increases).

Our takeaways from statement & post-policy briefing

Growth - BNM sees GDP growth for 2026 “firmly within the (official) forecast range of

4-5%”. This is in line with Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah’s suggestion

on 10th Jun that it would be near the top of this range. Meanwhile, risks to global growth

remains tilted to the downside, but was no longer characterized as “elevated”.